For each group stage match, we first check if betting odds are available. If so, we convert them to implied win/draw/loss probabilities and remove the bookmaker margin. When odds aren't available, we blend each team's Elo rating (60%) and FIFA ranking (40%) to estimate their relative strength. Host nations — the USA, Mexico, and Canada — receive a small home-advantage boost.

Simulate every group match

Each match outcome is drawn randomly according to those probabilities. Evenly matched teams have a higher chance of drawing (up to 28%), while mismatches rarely end level (around 12%). After all matches are played, teams are ranked by points, then goal difference, then goals scored — just like the real tournament.

Determine who advances

The top two teams from each of the 12 groups advance automatically. Then the eight best third-place finishers (out of 12) also qualify — chosen by points, goal difference, and goals scored across all groups. From there, the bracket is set and knockout matches are played one by one. No draws in knockouts: the stronger team wins more often, but upsets always happen.

Repeat 1,000 times

We run the entire tournament from group stage to final 1,000 times. Each run is independent — different random results, different bracket paths. A team's probability for any outcome is simply how often that outcome happened across all 1,000 simulations. The more simulations, the more stable and reliable the percentages.

A note on accuracy: Monte Carlo simulations capture uncertainty well, but they are only as good as the inputs. Betting odds reflect the market's best guess at the time they were recorded. Elo and FIFA rankings are lagging indicators. Injuries, squad rotation, and real match results will shift the true probabilities as the tournament progresses — treat these numbers as informed estimates, not predictions.